NFL Picks: Betting on Talented First Year Starting QBs The Newest Angle For Bettors

One of the most frequent questions I get is, “What have been the biggest changes you have seen in 26 years of handicapping?” There is no question, one of the most positive angles to evolve in very recent years in NFL betting is spotting quality young (not always rookie) quarterbacks and riding them while they are undervalued.

Luckily for sportsbooks such as William Hill bookmakers most gamblers are still extremely hesitant to exploit this angle. Frankly that’s great news for us sharps as it keeps the point spread beneficial for us.

Thanks to the growing popularity in the south of seven-on-seven high school football in which teams throw on nearly every down, quarterbacks are entering college more prepared than ever before.

Likewise, college teams are snapping the ball often 80-90 or more times a game, passing 40-50. Often these numbers are double of what they were 10-15 years ago. Hence quarterbacks are coming into the NFL much more refined than they were when most of us began our betting and handicapping.

In 2011, Cam Newton compiled arguably the greatest rookie season in NFL history insofar as QBs are concerned. Virtually every NFL historian agrees 2012 was the year of the rookie quarterback led by Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III each turning their teams from laughingstock to playoff teams.

Second year signal caller, but first year starter Colin Kaepernick possibly surpassed them all, nearly leading his 49ers to Super Bowl victory. This season has seen the Jets, Browns, and Bills substantially improve due to first year men behind center. New York and Buffalo of course had rookies, but unfortunately Buffalo and Cleveland’s turning point players have since been injured.

The bottom line for bettors as the best under-the-radar NFL teams to tail in recent years have been led by young and talented quarterbacks.