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Reasoning: I have been on the Braves a bunch recently and definitely do feel that Atlanta is much better than Houston but it's really tough to sweep a team in a four game series and that is the situation here. Freddi Gonzalez' squad is ridiculously beat up right now but yet continues to chug along. Heyward, Prado and McClouth are all missing in the outfield and at some point it is going to catch up with them. That point hasn't happened yet but Wandy Rodriguez is a quality lefthander who completely shut down the Braves at Turner Field about a month ago and I can see a semi repeat performance today on his comfortable home mound. Granted the Astros bullpen blew it as Brian McCann hit a pinch hit game tying home run in the ninth and then won it with a long ball in extras but don't blame Rodriguez in that game.
Derek Lowe is coming off of a great start down in Florida where he had a no-hitter into the seventh inning. When the sinker is on the guy can be extremely tough to hit but it's not like Lowe has been consistently great as evidenced by allowing 11 earned in his previous 15 or so innings before that last start. It's a 50-50 proposition whether the Atlanta righthander is on his game or not and I'm willing to fade him here with this home dog.
The Astros are a bad team with a bad record, I get that. They are going nowhere as the franchise has been regressing mightily since the Biggio and Bagwell days but they are still a professional team with decent enough guys like Pence, Bourne and Wallace. The losing streak is at four after falling in the first three here at home to the Bravos but Atlanta is a team that is ridiculously beaten up and due to lay an egg with the bats and Rodriguez is capable of helping carry that out.
Top expert pick on this game: Houston +120
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